Returns are growing in importance — with both retailers and consumers. To understand how these pressures are shaping the retail landscape, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns, a UPS company, explored both consumer and retailer perspectives and priorities for the returns experience. Key findings include:

Total returns for the retail industry are projected to reach $849.9 billion in 2025.

Discover the critical ecommerce fraud trends shaping 2025, from the surge in returns and card testing attacks to the industrialization of fraud and the impact of agentic commerce. The ecommerce fraud landscape is constantly shifting and fraudsters are constantly innovating. As a result, fraud pressure increased 13% by value in 2025, according to Signifyd data.

This report offers insights into the latest fraud schemes and protection. We look at the latest in return fraud, agentic commerce and explore regional trends in North America, the UK, Europe and Latin America.

Retailers have spent decades refining the online customer journey, optimising landing pages, streamlining checkout and layering in just enough friction to manage risk without losing conversions. But what happens when the customer no longer takes the journey at all?

That’s the shift agentic commerce represents. AI agents are beginning to act not as assistants but as autonomous actors, capable of initiating and completing purchases independently of the shopper.

How online retailers and brands can overcome fraud’s latest growth industry: First‑party fraud and abuse. The evolving nature of first-party fraud has turned it into a multibillion-dollar threat. Organized fraud rings are leveraging digital loopholes, exploiting return policies, and using tactics such as refund-as-a-service platforms to target retailers. If your business isn’t prepared, you risk significant financial loss and damage to your reputation.

eCommerce fraud will rise from $44.3 billion in 2024 to $107 billion globally in 2029; a growth of 141%, according to Juniper Research. This has the potential for a significant negative impact on retailers’ bottom lines in an industry with tight margins, and also on their reputation.

This is putting ID verification processes firmly front and centre in the minds of retailers, even for those that sell low value items.

More than 6 in 10 merchants cite an increase in first-party misuse (aka “friendly fraud”) over the past year. 2/3 of merchants with annual revenues greater than $1B use in-house dispute management methods rather than third-party services. This results in up to 34% greater revenue loss versus merchants who use third-party platforms to manage disputes.

Key takeaways and insights within the report include:

The payments industry is entering a critical new phase, where speed, security, and intelligence are no longer optional. Financial institutions must adapt to future trends in payments that prioritize real-time processing, AI-driven decision-making, and proactive fraud prevention. Customers now expect instant payments through rails like RTP®, FedNow®, and ACH, and regulators demand stronger compliance and risk management. Institutions that modernize their payment infrastructure today will secure a competitive advantage for the future.

Our latest report surveyed over 5,000 consumers and business decision-makers across the globe to understand their preferences for shopping online and sharing data. What we found? Consumers today want digital experiences to feel frictionless and easy — without sacrificing security or increasing chances of fraud. An almost impossible balancing act.  

Learn how to improve the transaction experience with insights on: