Brand A had a strong holiday season. They saw conversions go up, and their ROAS looked good. However, when the CFO asked, “how do we know those sales wouldn’t have happened anyway?” The room went silent. The budget stays flat for next year.

Brand B also had a strong holiday season. The difference is they ran a Conversion Lift study. They walked into January with a single number: 14,200 incremental conversions attributed to their Meta ads, at $7.40 per incremental result. When the CFO asked the same question, they had a clear answer.

Meta has recently released its 34-page 2026 holiday marketing guide titled “Winning Hearts and Boosting Carts”. and it makes one core argument: brands that wait until November to plan their holiday push are already behind. The guide lays out where holiday shoppers spend their time, why creators have become central to driving purchase decisions, and a quarter-by-quarter timeline for building campaigns months ahead of peak season.

We surveyed thousands of festive shoppers from 18 countries to better understand how people are discovering products, weighing purchase decisions and how they move from browsing to buying. Every festive season, marketers face the same core questions: where do shoppers discover, compare and decide? How do they progress from “I need ideas” to “I’m ready to buy”?

This year, the answers are shifting. Social commerce is accelerating. AI is changing how shoppers search. Creators have become trusted shopping advisors. The habits that seemed settled a year ago look different now.

Ahead of the busy holiday shopping season, shoppers aren’t asking retailers to reinvent the retail experience — rather asking retailers to just get the basics right: products consistently in stock, smooth checkout, and quick resolution when service or experience issues arise.

The fundamentals are even more important in a year where shoppers watch every dollar. Nearly four in 10 say a tighter budget will have the biggest impact on their holiday spending, while another quarter of consumers expect rising prices to force tougher choices. When money is tight, patience disappears and small moments of friction become reasons to leave.

Black Friday used to mean one day, one rush, one shot. For US students in 2026, it’s a season with months of planning, saving and anticipation. With an average planned spend of $333 per student (up on last year), student wallets are opening wider even as the cost of living bites. And 82% are saving specifically for it.

Our 2026 US report breaks down how students discover, decide and spend across the BFCM season, and how brands turn a one-day sale into year-round loyalty.

What actually won Holiday 2025, and the five plays that will win Holiday 2026 with creators. Exclusive data from Traackr’s US market analysis and Lumanu’s creator payment index.

Holiday 2026 won’t be won by showing up. It will be won by cutting through. More creators, more content, and softer attention have raised the bar for the highest-stakes quarter in creator marketing. To find what actually breaks through, we went deeper than volume.

Summer is the best time to kick off holiday planning. To help you put your best foot forward, we asked consumers in early January to break down how much they actually spent during the 2025 holiday season —while it was still fresh.​ We covered top spending categories, timing, how they used AI, the in-store versus online breakdown and the impact of cost increases on shopping decisions. With this inside look, your holiday marketing strategy will be even more precise.​

Why the brands that win this holiday season won’t be the ones with the biggest budgets. They’ll be the ones that adapt the fastest. Success was measured by how accurately brands forecast demand, how early they secured media and how effectively they executed against a calendar built around predictable shopping moments. If your holiday strategy was finalized before the leaves changed color, you were ahead of the competition.